The lack of progress and clarity on regulations surrounding industrial hemp in the US has seen forecasts for the market over the next five years plummet.
According to a new report from cannabis business consulting firm Whitney Economics (WE), the forecast for hemp grain and fiber in the country by 2030 has now been revised down to just 1m acres, an 82% decline on previous predictions.
This translates to a $3.1bn fall in projected revenues, based on the latest output and pricing data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
According to the company, this drastic downgrade is largely down to recommendations that both THC and CBD should be strictly controlled in hemp animal feed.
As previously reported by Business of Cannabis, in July the US Senate Appropriations Committee approved the Agriculture-FDA spending bill unanimously placing the future of the country’s hemp industry in serious danger.
The 2025 US Farm Bill, a piece of legislation passed every year to fund farming programmes, has now been approved by both chambers of congress.
In May, the ‘Mary Miller’ amendment had been added to the Farm Bill via a procedural tactic whereby all amendments were passed as a block, meaning there was no chance to vote on each amendment individually.
This amendment is designed to regulate the flourishing intoxicating hemp industry, but would also have a major impact on the country’s hemp and CBD industries, making 90-95% of hemp products on the market, including FDA-approved animal feed, banned.
The ever-evolving and uncertain regulation on intoxicating hemp products was also a major factor in WE’s revision.
WE founder and Chief Economist Beau Whitney said. “In addition, legislatures and cannabis regulators are so focused on recriminalizing hemp while imposing restrictions on even nonintoxicating products, there is little appetite for hemp investment or the development of infrastructure to support the hemp sector.”
He added that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is now setting very low limits on THC and CBD for animal feed, essentially defining THC and CBD as more toxic than arsenic, cadmium and lead, killing any appetite for investment in the space.
“The attempt to provide clarity on animal feed by setting tight limits may have resulted in more uncertainty, not less,” Whitney said.
“While some operators think that the newly adopted limits in animal feed will help farmers, others are not convinced. Regardless, when we examined both the micro and macro environment, it was clear that the demand for future acres for hemp fiber and grains will be muted.”
